Name
Money Back Gambling Systems

Aka
You Can't Lose Betting Systems

Victims
Gamblers, particularly horse racing

The Scam
The sleazy con artist is hanging around the track watching the punters throw away their money. He spots his mark, a loud mouth who, despite having a fat wallet, has just lost a bundle.

"Psst! Mate, I have a tip for you on the next race. It is a sure thing."

"Yeah? Whose your pick?"

"Can't tell you."

"Why not?"

"Because my friend, this tip is so good that I'm selling it. The price is fifty large.

"Forget it! I don't know you for a horse's backside! Why would I give you $50?"

"Look. I have over $1000 on this race, I'm already risking a packet but I'm not worried because I KNOW this baby is going to pay off. I just want to share my tip with others and make a little extra scratch. So how about this, if my tip doesn't pay off, if the horse doesn't win or place, come and see me and I will give you your money back!"


The victim can't lose! If the tip doesn't pay off, he doesn't have to pay for it.

Of course, the con artist doesn't really have $1000 on the horse. That is just a come on to bring the sucker in. What the victim doesn't realise is that the tip, whilst a perhaps a horse of reasonable odds, is not the point of the scam.

If the horse does win the race, the con artist scores $50.
if the horse doesn't win the race, the con ar tist doesn't lose any money. He just pays back the $50, no harm, no foul!

This is a percentage game. The con artist never loses but he does win enough of the time to make it a worthwhile scam!

It should also be noted that the victim does lose out in this scam. If the horse wins, they have lost $50 on a worthless tip. The victim has the same chance of winning without the tip and it doesn't cost them a cent. If the horses loses, they have lost the money from the bet, which has to be more then $50 to make buying the tip worthwhile!

Variations
Money Back And Then Some!
There is another variation that makes sure the con artist will always make money and that he will have more suckers buying the suspect tips. If the victim turns down the money back guarentee, he can hit them with this variation that looks too good to be true!

This version is best played on wagers with only two outcomes. e.g. an Australian Football Match between Richmond and Carlton.

The con artist finds a victim and says "I have a tip as to will win one the AFL games this weekend. This tip will cost you $50. However, if I am wrong, I will give you your money back plus $20 of my own money."

The victim can't lose! Even if the tip is a dud, he will still make $20 from the con artist. This deal is so good that the con artist will have the lining up around the block to take part.

However, the con artist has TWO victims in these scam. to victim number one, he suggests Richmond will win. To victim number two, he suggests Carlton will win.

The victim who bet on the winner gives $50 total to the con artist.
The victim who bet on the loser gets $20 in total from the con artist.

The con artist always makes $30!

Money Back And Then Some....and THEN RUN!
Finally, if the victim doesn't bite on the first two bets, the con artist can simple to a runner! He sells the tip for Saturday's game on Friday night offering to not only give the sucker his money back but also to cover his losses!

He agrees to meet the sucker after the game for a drink. If the wrong team wins, he just doesn't show up and is never heard from again.

Similar variations of these scams can be found in stock tips and the martingale system .

Case Studies
Nobel prize winning Richard Feynman outlines in his book "Surely You're Joking Me Feynham" how this scam was tried on him by a race track con artist. Feynman expressed admiration for the math involved in running the scam as each variation was tried on him. He never took the man up on the offer.

Magician Derren Brown ran this scam as a part of a television show.

Take
Tips sell for $50-$500

Keywords
Horse, sports, gambling, betting systems

Created by Nicholas J. Johnson
Australia's Honest Con Man
www.conman.com.au